The Week Ahead - 27 September 2010

Themes for me this week will be the longer tern notes being auctioned by the US Treasury on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday where I'll be looking for any weakness. Then on Thursday there is the US Initial jobless and continuing claims for September plus on Friday I'll be paying close attention to US ISM manufacturing for September.

I'm keen to see if there is any real improvement in US jobless numbers and manufacturing or if the can is just continuing to be kicked down the road in the hope of better days materialising all by themselves.

Australasia, Japan and China
All times are AEST

Mon 27 September
09.50 Japan Merchandise trade balance total August
09.50 Japan Adjusted merchandise trade balance August
09.50 Japan Merchandise trade exports August
09.50 Japan Merchandise trade imports August
12.00 China Industrial profits August

Tue 28 September
15.00 Japan Small business confidence September

Wed 29 September
07.45 New Zealand Trade balance August
07.45 New Zealand Trade balance 12 month August
09.50 Japan Tankan large manufacturers index Quarter 3
09.50 Japan Tankan large manufacturing outlook Quarter 3
09.50 Japan Tankan non-manufacturing Quarter 3
09.50 Japan Tankan non- manufacturing outlook Quarter 3
09.50 Japan Tankan large all industrial Capex Quarter 3
10.00 Australia Conference board leading index August
12.30 China HSBC manufacturing PMI September

Thu 30 September
07.45 New Zealand Building permits August
09.15 Japan Nomura/JMMA manufacturing PMI September
09.50 Japan Retail trade August
09.50 Japan Large retailers sales August
09.50 Japan Industrial production August
11.00 Australia HIA new home sales August
11.30 Australia Building approvals August
11.30 Australia Private sector credit August
11.30 Australia RP data-rismark med val August
12.00 New Zealand NBNZ activity outlook September
12.00 New Zealand NBNZ business confidence September
14.00 Japan Vehicle production August
15.00 Japan Housing starts August
15.00 Japan Annualized housing starts August
15.00 Japan Construction orders August

Fri 1 Oct 09.30
Japan Job-to-applicant ratio August
09.30 Japan Overall household spending August
09.30 Japan Tokyo CPI September
09.30 Japan Jobless rate August
09.30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food September
09.30 Japan Tokyo CPI ex food, energy September
09.30 Japan National CPI August
09.30 Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy August
11.00 China PMI Manufacturing September
15.00 Japan Vehicle Sales September


North America & Europe
Times are London, UK time

Mon 27 September
UK Hometrack housing survey September
13.30 US Chicago Fed national activity index August
15.30 US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity September

Tue 28 September
Germany CPI September
Germany CPI - EU harmonised September
07.00 Germany GFK consumer confidence survey October
09.30 UK GDP Quarter 2
09.30 UK Current account Quarter 2
09.30 UK Total business investment Quarter 2
11.00 UK CBI reported sales September
14.00 US S&P/CaseShiller home price index July
15.00 US Consumer confidence September
15.00 US Richmond Fed manufacturing index September

Wed 29 September
09.30 UK Index of services (3mth/3mth)
09.30 UK Net consumer credit August
09.30 UK Net lending sec. on dwellings August
10.00 Euro Zone Business climate indicator September
10.00 Euro Zone Economic confidence September
10.00 Euro Zone Industrial confidence September
10.00 Euro Zone Services confidence September
13.30 Canada Industrial product price August
13.30 Canada Raw materials price index August

Thu 30 September
00.01 UK GFK consumer confidence survey September
08.55 Euro Zone Unemployment change September
08.55 Euro Zone Unemployment rate September
13.30 Canada GDP July
13.30 US GDP (annualized) Quarter 2
13.30 US Personal consumption Quarter 2
13.30 US GDP price index Quarter 2
13.30 US Core PCE Quarter 2
13.30 US Initial jobless and continuing claims September
14.45 US Chicago purchasing manager September
15.00 US NAPM-Milwaukee September

Fri 1 October
09.30 UK Bank of England housing equity withdrawal Quarter 2
09.30 UK PMI manufacturing September
10.00 Euro Zone Unemployment rate August
13.30 US Personal income August
13.30 US Personal spending August
13.30 US PCE deflator August
13.30 US PCE core August
14.55 US University of Michigan confidence September
15.00 US ISM manufacturing September
15.00 US ISM prices paid September
15.00 US Construction spending August
22.00 US Domestic vehicle sales September
22.00 US Total vehicle sales September

Upcoming Treasury Auctions
As found at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/RI/OFAnnce

Long term notes are highlighted.

As always, do your own research and have a great week.

Buffett contradicts himself on recession

Last week Billionaire investor and Berkshire Hathaway Chairman, Warren Buffett appeared via video link at the Montana Economic Development Summit and made some very bullish statements about the economy, the state of Berkshire Hathaway's businesses and the recovery.

In an article by MATT GOURAS published online by The Washington Post on Monday, September 13, 2010 Buffett is quoted as saying;

"I am a huge bull on this country. We are not going to have a double-dip recession at all, I see our businesses coming back across the board."

Yet just 10 short days later Buffett is interviewed by CNBC's Becky Quick.

Becky - The NBER said this week that the recession officially ended back in June of last year.

Buffett - Well, they define it differently. But I mean, I define it, I think we're in a recession until real per capita GDP gets back to where it was before. That is not the way the National Bureau of Economic Research measures it. But I will tell you that to any, on any common sense definition, the average American is below where he was before, or his family, in terms of real income, GDP. We're still in a recession, and we're not gonna be out of it for awhile, but we will get out of it.

Check the video out for yourself.

US Housing Market Still Stalled

The NAHB builder confidence survey released today in the US points to a continued lack of confidence from home builders.

Unchanged from previous month

Builder confidence remained unchanged from the previous month at 13, the lowest since March 2009. According to the news release on the National Association of Home Builders web site

"Neither the component gauging current sales conditions nor the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months budged in September from their low readings in the previous month, holding at 13 and 18, respectively. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers edged down a single point, to 9."

A reading above 50 indicates that more builders see the market as good than see it as poor, the reading has not been above 50 in over 4 years, the last time being in April 2006.

Departing from reality

In the minutes following the release of the NAHB builder confidence survey stock indexes surged up 0.5%, with the S&P 500 presently sitting at 1137 after shooting up from from 1128 just minutes before the announcement. On the surface of it you would have expected this news to be at best neutral to stocks and at worst perhaps create a slight fall, however in a complete departing from reality stocks have surged in what looks on the surface to be clearly some sort of market manipulation. It's little wonder Small Investors have been exiting the market in their droves as covered in depth in this article by Graham Bowley published by The New York Times August 21, 2010.

Uncertainty increases

"In general, builders haven't seen any reason for improved optimism in market conditions over the past month," noted NAHB Chairman Bob Jones, a home builder from Bloomfield Hills, Mich. "If anything, consumer uncertainty has increased, and builders feel their hands are tied until potential home buyers feel more secure about the job market and economy."

FOMC tomorrow

With a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee due tomorrow and major stock indexes globally sitting on or just below resistance it will be interesting to see what news that brings and whether indexes will break resistance and run upward or has today's news and subsequent manipulation of the market just been to suck in the long positions prior to an announcement from the FOMC that will see the market reverse and head lower again, only time will tell.

The Week Ahead - September 20, 2010

Australasia, Japan and China
All times are AEST

Mon 20 September
13.00 New Zealand ANZ Consumer Confidence Index September

Tue 21 September
08.45 New Zealand Net Migration August
11.30 Australia Reserve Bank's Board Minutes September
13.00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending August
15.00 Japan Leading Index CI July
15.00 Japan Coincident Index CI July
16.00 Japan Machine Tool Orders August

Wed 22 September
08.45 New Zealand Current Account Balance Quarter 2
08.45 New Zealand Account Deficit-GDP Ratio Quarter 2
10.30 Australia Westpac Leading Index July
14.30 Japan All Industry Activity Index July

Thu 23 September
08.45 New Zealand GDP Quarter 2

Fri 24 September
11.30 Australia Financial accounts Quarter 2
11.35 China MNI Business Condition Survey September


North America and Europe
All days and times are London UK time

Mon 20 September
United Kingdom Rightmove House Prices September
13.30 Canada Wholesale Sales July
15.00 US NAHB Housing Market Index September

Tue 21 September
09.30 UK Public Finances (PSNCR) August
09.30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing August
12.00 Canada CPI August
12.00 Canada Bank Canada CPI August
13.30 US Housing Starts August
13.30 US Building Permits August
19.15 US FOMC Rate Decision September
19.15 US FOMC Statement September

Wed 22 September
09.30 UK Bank of England Minutes September
10.00 Eurozone Industrial New Orders July
13.30 Canada Leading Indicators August
13.30 Canada Retail Sales July
15.00 Eurozone - Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence September

Thu 23 September
08.30 Germany PMI Manufacturing September
08.30 Germany PMI Services September
09.00 Eurozone PMI Composite September
09.00 Eurozone PMI Manufacturing September
09.00 Eurozone PMI Services September
13.30 US Initial jobless and continuing claims September
15.00 US Leading Indicators August
15.00 US Existing Home Sales August

Fri 24 September
09.00 Germany IFO - Business Climate September
09.00 Germany IFO - Current Assessment September
09.00 Germany IFO - Expectations September
13.30 US Durable Goods Orders August
15.00 US New Home Sales August

Upcomming US Treasury Auctions

* Long term notes are highlighted.

Have a great week...

The Week Ahead US Treasury Auctions - September 13, 2010

Upcoming US Treasury Auctions

Here is a copy of the upcoming auctions for this week.

Only short term bills being auctioned this week.

More About Treasury Auctions

Not quite as expected
If you've been following my recent posts about US treasury bonds, you'll know that I've been suggesting a connection between the auctions of longer term US treasuries and stocks falling. You may have also observed what I had suggested may happen last week didn't really eventuate, well not to any great degree anyway. Sure the S&P 500 fell on the 7th only to recover on the 8th and 9th to finish just a few points below where it started it's fall on the 7th, going on to round off the week higher.

This doesn't mean there isn't a link
Although last week stocks the fell on first day of the longer term treasury auctions (7th Sep) they didn't continue to fall for the following two days, during which time more long term treasuries were being auctioned. I have previously shown that this has generally been the case during previous auctions. There was however an article on Reuters that would suggest that there is a direct correlation between the auction of longer term US treasuries and falls in shares. Here is a snippet from the Reuters article

"30-yr auction tails, dealing Treasuries another blow, NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on Thursday after jobs and trade data suggested the economy wasn't as weak as feared, boosting riskier assets such as stocks and hurting demand at the government's long-bond auction."

Admission of a link
That single paragraph above confirms to me what I have long believed and have confirmed over number of months, that there is a direct connection between these two areas of investment. It would appear that if investors are dissatisfied with the risks associated with holding stocks, they flee to the perceived safety of US Treasuries, a perception that seems to be re-enforced with the help of the media.

I'll continue to follow bond auctions
I will to continue to follow the Longer term US treasury auctions going forward as I'm of the opinion there is risk of downward movement in the stock indices each time longer term treasuries come up for auction. Whilst I won't be writing weekly/fortnightly posts on the subject, I'll be including a copy of the US treasury auction details as it appears on this page in my "The week ahead" posts so you can be informed, do your own research and make informed investment decisions.

If you missed it
Past posts that cover this topic are US Treasury Auctions, US Treasury Auctions Part 2 and More Market Manipulation.

The week Ahead - September 13, 2010

Australasia, Japan and China 

Please note all times are AEST

Monday 13 September 
08.45 New Zealand Food prices August


Tuesday 14 September 

08.00 New Zealand REINZ housing price index August

08.00 New Zealand REINZ house sales August

08.45 New Zealand Retail sales July

08.45 New Zealand Retail sales ex-auto July

11.30 Australia NAB business conditions August

11.30 Australia NAB business confidence August

12.00 China Conference Board, China, July leading economic index 

14.00 Japan Tokyo condominium sales August

14.30 Japan Industrial production July

Wednesday 15 September 
11.00 Australia MI/WBC consumer confidence September

11.00 Australia DEWR skilled vacancies September

11.30 Australia Dwelling starts Quarter 2
11.30 Australia Motor Vehicle Sales

Thursday 16 September 
07.00 New Zealand Reserve Bank of New Zealand official cash rate September

08.30 New Zealand Business NZ PMI August

09.50 Japan Tertiary industry index July
11.00 Australia MI/WBC consumer inflationary expectations September

11.00 Australia MI/WBC unemployment expectations September 

11.30 Australia Labour force - industry August

11.30 Australia RBA Bulletin - quarterly Quarter 2 

13.00 Australia Speech by Philip Lowe, Assistant Governor (Economic) 

North America and Europe 

Please note times are London UK time.

Monday 13 Sep 
10.00 Eurozone Industrial production July

19.00 US Monthly Budget Statement August

Tuesday 14 Sep 
United Kingdom RICS house price balance August

09.30 United Kingdom CPI August

10.00 Eurozone Labour costs Quarter 2

10.00 Eurozone ZEW survey (econ. sentiment) September

10.00 Germany ZEW survey (econ. sentiment) September

13.30 Canada Labor productivity Quarter 2

13.30 Canada Capacity utilization rate Quarter 2

13.30 Canada New motor vehicle sales July

13.30 US Advance retail sales August

15.00 US Business inventories July

Wednesday 15 Sep 
09.30 United Kingdom Unemployment Rate
10.00 Eurozone CPI August

10.00 Eurozone Employment Quarter 2

13.30 Canada Manufacturing sales July

13.30 US Import price index August

13.30 US Empire manufacturing Index September

14.15 US Industrial production August

14.15 US Capacity utilization rate August

Thursday 16 Sep 
09.30 United Kingdom Retail Sales
09.30 United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations
10.00 Eurozone Trade balance July

13.30 US Producer price index August

13.30 US Initial jobless and continuing claims August

13.30 US Current account balance Quarter 2

15.00 US Philadelphia Fed. September

Friday 17 Sep 
07.00 Germany Producer prices August

09.00 Eurozone ECB Euro-Zone current account July

10.00 Eurozone Construction output July

13.30 US CPI August

14.55 US Uni. of Michigan confidence September


Have a great week.

The week Ahead - September 6, 2010

Australasia, Japan and China 

All times are AEST 

Tue 7 Sep

Japan BOJ target rate September 

14.30 Australia  RBA Cash Target September

15.00 Japan Leading index CI July

15.00 Japan Coincident index CI July

Wed 8 Sep 

08.45 New Zealand Manufacturing activity Quarter 2

09.50 Japan Machine orders July

09.50 Japan Adjusted current account total July

09.50 Japan Trade balance (Balance of Payments Basis) July 

11.30 Australia No. of owner-occupiers July

11.30 Australia Value of all loans July

Thu 9 Sep 

08.45 New Zealand Card spending August

09.50 Japan BSI large all industry Quarter 3

09.50 Japan BSI large manufacturing Quarter 3

11.30 Australia Employment change August

11.30 Australia Unemployment rate August

11.30 Australia Participation rate August

15.00 Japan Consumer confidence August

15.00 Japan Consumer confidence households August

Fri 10 Sep

China Trade balance August

China Exports August

China Imports August

08.45 New Zealand Terms of trade index Quarter 2

09.50 Japan GDP Quarter 2

09.50 Japan Nominal GDP Quarter 2 

09.50 Japan GDP deflator Quarter 2

09.50 Japan Domestic CGPI August

North America & Europe 

Times are London, UK time. 

Tue 7 Sep

11.00 Germany Factory orders July

Wed 8 Sep

UK NIESR GDP estimate August

07.00 Germany Trade balance July

07.00 Germany Current account July

09.30 UK Industrial production July

11.00 Germany Industrial production July

13.30 Canada Building permits July

14.00 Canada Bank of Canada Rate September

15.00 Canada Ivey purchasing managers index August

19.00 US Fed's Beige book 

20.00 US Consumer credit July

Thu 9 Sep 

07.00 Germany CPI - EU harmonised August

12.00 UK Bank of England Announces Rates September

13.15 Canada Housing starts August

13.30 Cnada New housing price index August

13.30 Canada International merchandise trade August

13.30 US Trade balance July

13.30 US Initial jobless and continuing claims September

Fri 10 Sep 

09.30 UK PPI input NSA August

09.30 UK PPI output NSA August

09.30 UK PPI output core NSA August

12.00 Canada Net change in employment August

12.00 Canada Unemployment rate August

12.00 Canada Participation rate August

15.00 US Wholesale inventories July

Sorry for the delay in getting this out this week, have a great week.

More market manipulation

Here we go again

If you have been following my recent posts about the correlation between US treasury bond sales and drops in the market you won't be the least bit surprised to hear that I'm banging the drum yet again. First let me apologise for not making a post over the past week or so, I've been away in Sydney and then laid up with a virus I brought back with me.

More BS safe haven stories doing the rounds today

I had taken the snapshot below from the Upcoming Treasury Auctions page earlier yesterday and thought we might see some stories trotted out today so as to drive fear into the punters and in-turn driving the money out of stocks towards US Treasuries. Here are a few stories news items from Reuters today;


Global stocks, euro down on Europe banking concerns and
Wall St futures signal weaker start for stocks and
Bonds rise on renewed European bank jitters


What are the auction details?

 

Note the 182 day bills and more importantly the 3 year notes up for auction today and also the 9 year 11 month notes tomorrow followed by the 29 year and 11 month Bonds on the 9th September. 

To often to be a mere co-incidence

This is now the third fortnight in a row I've documented the news that is circulated on the date these longer term bonds are being auctioned turns negative on stocks and suggests US treasuries as a safe haven. It's almost sad really that the public are being manipulated into buying this rubbish debt from a country that has a bigger addiction to debt than a junkie has to crack. 

Don't play the game

So we can see the pattern clearly now but how might we play the game? I can only suggest that you don't get sucked into buying bonds and if you check out this post you'll see why I say that. By all means sell your long positions and take shorts for the few days that the bonds are auctioned, but be sure and exit those shorts on the morning of the last day of the longer term auctions, in this case September 9th, because as quick as the media talk it down they turn around and talk it straight back up once the demand for bonds has been filled. 


As always, do your own research and stay sharp. Things aren't always as they seem. 

If you missed my previous posts regarding bond auctions you can see them here and here.

The Week Ahead - August 23, 2010

Australasia, Japan and China 
*all times are AEST


Monday August 23

1150 Japan Supermarket Sales July (Year on year) 

Tuesday August 24

1130 Australia Government Financial estimates 2010/11     

1300 New Zealand Reserve Bank NZ 2 year inflation expectation Quarter 3     

Wednesday August 25 

1130 Australia Preliminary construction work June quarter 

1150 Japan Merchant Trade Balance  

Thursday August 26 

1000 Australia Conference Board Leading Index 

1130 Australia Private capital expenditure actual - June quarter 

1130 Australia Private expected capital Expenditure 2010/11

Friday August 27 

1130 Japan Jobless rate July   

1130 Japan National CPI, (year on year) July   

1130 Japan National CPI ex food & energy, (year on year) July   

         

North America & Europe 

*all times are London UK

Monday August 23 

08.30 Germany PMI manufacturing August

08.30 Germany PMI services August

09.00 Euro Zone PMI composite August

09.00 Euro Zone PMI manufacturing August

09.00 Euro Zone PMI services August

13.30 United States Chicago Fed national activity index July

Tuesday August 24

07.00 Germany GDP Quarter 2

13.30 Canada Retail sales June

13.30 Canada Retail sales less autos June 

15.00 United States Richmond Fed manufacturing index August

15.00 United States Existing home sales July

Wednesday August 25

Germany Consumer price index August

Germany CPI - EU harmonised August

13.30 United States Durable goods orders July

13.30 United States Durables ex transportation July

13.30 United States New home sales July

13.30 United States House price index June

13.30 United States House price purchase index Quarter 2

Thursday August 26 

11.00 United Kingdom CBI reported sales Annual 

13.30 United States Initial jobless and continuing claims August

14.00 United States RPX composite 28 day Index June

Friday August 27 

09.30 United Kingdom Total business investment Quarter 2

09.30 United Kingdom GDP Quarter 2

13.30 United States GDP (annualized) Quarter 2

13.30 United States GDP price index Quarter 2

13.30 United States Core PCE  Quarter 2

13.30 United States Personal consumption Quarter 2

14.55 United States University of Michigan confidence August

Have a great week.