Tuesday, September 7, 2010

More market manipulation

Here we go again


If you have been following my recent posts about the correlation between US treasury bond sales and drops in the market you won't be the least bit surprised to hear that I'm banging the drum yet again. First let me apologise for not making a post over the past week or so, I've been away in Sydney and then laid up with a virus I brought back with me.


More BS safe haven stories doing the rounds today


I had taken the snapshot below from the Upcoming Treasury Auctions page earlier yesterday and thought we might see some stories trotted out today so as to drive fear into the punters and in-turn driving the money out of stocks towards US Treasuries. Here are a few stories news items from Reuters today;


Global stocks, euro down on Europe banking concerns and
Wall St futures signal weaker start for stocks and
Bonds rise on renewed European bank jitters


What are the auction details?

 
Note the 182 day bills and more importantly the 3 year notes up for auction today and also the 9 year 11 month notes tomorrow followed by the 29 year and 11 month Bonds on the 9th September. 

To often to be a mere co-incidence

This is now the third fortnight in a row I've documented the news that is circulated on the date these longer term bonds are being auctioned turns negative on stocks and suggests US treasuries as a safe haven. It's almost sad really that the public are being manipulated into buying this rubbish debt from a country that has a bigger addiction to debt than a junkie has to crack. 

Don't play the game

So we can see the pattern clearly now but how might we play the game? I can only suggest that you don't get sucked into buying bonds and if you check out this post you'll see why I say that. By all means sell your long positions and take shorts for the few days that the bonds are auctioned, but be sure and exit those shorts on the morning of the last day of the longer term auctions, in this case September 9th, because as quick as the media talk it down they turn around and talk it straight back up once the demand for bonds has been filled. 


As always, do your own research and stay sharp. Things aren't always as they seem. 

If you missed my previous posts regarding bond auctions you can see them here and here.

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